Packaging Machinery in the United States (one year after the start of the Trade War)
Together with the Mecs Research Center, we take another look at export dynamics in one of the world’s leading destination markets. One year after “Tariff Day”, the figures tell the story of a market that is slowly being reshaped. For Italy, two consecutive years of decline: a warning sign that should not be underestimated
Luca Baraldi and Generoso Verrusio
It was early April last year when Donald Trump, speaking in the White House Rose Garden, announced the most ambitious and controversial system of reciprocal tariffs in recent history. One year later, with the full 2025 data now available, it is possible to take stock of how the trade war has actually affected exports of packaging machinery to the United States.
The picture that emerges is of a market that has not collapsed (indeed, it remains one of the most attractive in the world over the long term) but is quietly being reshaped. There are some surprises, some confirmations, and at least one signal that should give Italian manufacturers pause for thought.
A nearly €13 billion market that (almost) doesn’t feel the impact of tariffs
Let us start with the big picture. The Us packaging machinery market is now worth approximately €12.719 billion (2025 figure), with forecasts pointing to growth to €14.481 billion by 2030 (2025-2030 Cagr: +2.6%). This is not the rapid expansion seen in the previous decade, but it remains solid growth in an uncertain global environment.
Roughly 60% of the market is supplied by domestic production, while the remaining 40% comes from imports, a significant share that fuels competition among the leading supplier countries.
Perhaps the most surprising figure is that total imports in 2025 declined only marginally: -0.7%, from €5.2 billion to €5.17 billion. Considering the scale of the tariff measures introduced, this drop is almost negligible. The last time the United States recorded a contraction in packaging machinery imports was in 2009, during the global financial crisis. This time, resilience has remained largely intact, but as often happens, the devil is in the details.
Germany strengthens its position, Italy holds ground
Among the major exporters, the gap between Germany and Italy has widened. Germany closed 2025 with €1.38 billion in exports, up 1.9%, with a 2020-2025 Cagr of 7.9%. Italy reached €953 million, down 2.6%, with a 7.3% Cagr over the same period.
These figures still reflect solid long-term growth, and Italy’s position as the world’s second-largest supplier – holding an 8% share of the Us market – remains an important achievement.
The concern, however, lies in the trend: two consecutive years of decline (-6.3% in 2024 and -2.6% in 2025) in a market that, overall, has remained stable. It should be noted that the pace of decline is slowing and that Italy is not alone in facing difficulties. Yet the comparison with Germany – which grew by 20% and then by 1.9% over the same two-year period – raises a difficult question: is something no longer working as it should in Italy’s competitive positioning within the Us market?
Canada: the major casualty
If there is one figure that best summarizes the impact of tariffs, it is Canada’s. The Maple Leaf country – the third-largest exporter to the United States in 2024 with €679 million – fell to €595 million in 2025, a decline of 12.3%. Canada is therefore the main contributor to the overall reduction in U.S. imports.
The logic is brutally simple: the tariffs imposed by Washington on Ottawa have made Canadian supplies less competitive, directly affecting a country that, for geographic and historical reasons, had built a deeply integrated industrial supply chain with the United States.
The chinese paradox
The most counterintuitive result of 2025 concerns China. Despite one of the most restrictive tariff environments, Chinese exports still grew by 5.8%, reaching €310 million and consolidating the country’s position as the fourth-largest supplier to the Us market.
This result highlights an important reality: replacing suppliers that are deeply embedded in industrial supply chains is far more difficult and costly than tariffs alone might suggest. In the short term, Us importers appear to have preferred absorbing the additional tariff costs rather than reorganizing their sourcing strategies.
Some opportunities have emerged for alternative suppliers – South Korea, India, and Austria have all recorded strong growth rates – but their volumes remain too limited to significantly alter overall market dynamics.
United States: tariffs as a double-edged sword
One final figure completes the picture and deserves careful consideration. In 2025, Us exports of packaging machinery declined by 3.6%, and we know that their main destination markets are Mexico and Canada.
The tariffs Washington imposed on its neighboring trading partners have proven to be a double-edged sword: they may have slightly reduced dependence on imports, but at the same time they have weakened demand in the two markets that have historically been closest to Us industry.
The net result is debatable: a modest gain on the domestic front, offset by a tangible loss in exports.
The lesson is clear: protecting the domestic market comes at a price. And in 2025, Us manufacturers paid part of that price themselves.
