Packaging Status Report

Four-monthly observatory of the packaging chain: situation at June 2025. General economic framework, analysis of manufacturing activity and consequent evolution of the packaging sector.

Barbara Iascone 

General economic framework: an overview

The final figures for 2024 show a 0.7% rise in Italian GDP (lower than France and Spain; Germany’s GDP contracted as a result of the economic crisis).
According to ISTAT assessments, this increase was mainly driven by foreign demand; domestic demand, in contrast, had a negative impact. 
Employment rose by 1.3% to 62.7%, an increase of 282,000 units. This increase is higher than GDP growth; this could suggest lower productivity on the part of the newly employed, or that GDP growth has been underestimated.
Also confirmed was the drop in industrial production, down 3.5% year-on-year: one of the worst among the major EU countries.
The negative trend was observed across all sectors except food, beverages and tobacco. The sharpest drops were in textiles and metallurgy. 
Inflation in 2024 rose by 1.3%.
At the end of the year, the figures compiled by Prometeia show a 2.5% drop in turnover at constant prices, while production fell by 2.2%. There was a difference in performance across manufacturing sectors, with those most closely linked to foreign markets performing better.

Data from the manufacturing industry

Here we summarise the trends in the manufacturing industry sectors where packaging consumption is most intense, divided into food and non-food macro-areas. 
As is now widely recognised, the packaging sector is closely linked to the performance of the manufacturing industry, in particular in the food, beverage, FMCG, pharmaceutical and cosmetics sectors. 
Below is a brief overview of the trends in the sectors most closely related to the world of packaging.

The Food and Beverage sector confirmed a positive result for 2024, closing at +1.2%. An acceleration in the latest data collected (+1.8% in the September-November quarter) should be noted, in the wake of a gradual rise in the disposable income of households, following the most acute inflationary phase. 
The food sector alone grew by 1.8%, driven by exports, which reached record levels (+7.5%), close to €70 billion. 
Domestic consumption showed a recovery in volumes, especially for some products, and a 0.9% rise in spending.
For the beverage sector, the situation is complex: volumes registered a rise of 0.5%, corresponding to +2.5% in terms of turnover.

The Cosmetics sector remains vigorous, with the Confindustria association Cosmetica Italia forecasting growth of around 10% in 2024. This increase is driven by a major rise in exports, which are expected to exceed 15% in 2024, while the domestic market will also make a positive, albeit smaller, contribution, with an estimated growth rate of 6% compared to 2023.

The Pharmaceutical and FMCG sectors also showed positive trends: +6.9% for the former and +4.9% for the latter.

With regard to intermediate products, only metallurgy showed deflated turnover growth (+3.3%), driven by non-ferrous metals. Overall, the performance of 'chemical intermediates' and 'construction products and materials' remained stable, and in the latest surveys, actually recorded a recovery in turnover, linked to sectors such as cement and concrete, which are more directly activated by public works. 

On the other hand, cumulative performance was negative for 'Metal products', which closed with a drop of 3.3%, and 'Other intermediates' (-1.7%), which deteriorated further at the end of the year.

The most negative trends were recorded in the fashion (-8.5%) and electronics (-7.3%) sectors. Performance was also lacklustre for durable household products, furniture and above all household appliances, where the dynamics of slowing demand are intertwined with crisis situations that have become structural.

The packaging sector

Initial analyses for the year 2024 (at the time of the analysis, the data are still preliminary, editor’s note) point to a recovering sector.
Packaging production, expressed in tonnes, is expected to close with a rise of 1.9%, bringing production to over 17.4 billion tonnes. 
The figures indicate a recovery in both the domestic and foreign markets: exports are up 1.7%, reaching around 2,700 tonnes, while imports continue to grow at a brisker pace (+ 6.7%) and exceed 2,900 tonnes.
The trade balance remains negative and continues to grow in favour of imports. 
In 2024, imported packaging exceeded exported packaging by 266,000 tonnes, doubling compared to the previous year. At European level, countries such as Poland, Turkey and also Slovenia continue to evolve steadily in packaging production.

Packaging materials

If we look in detail at materials, we can see that the increase in production was supported by the performance of all types of packaging. 

Paper and cardboard packaging recorded an increase in production of 2.1%; corrugated cardboard alone rose by 2.2%. 

The production of flexible packaging by converters shows a positive trend of +3%; plastic packaging is also growing (+2.5%).

The trend was also positive for metal packaging: aluminium recorded a 4.8% increase in production in tonnes, with the trend driven by the cosmetics sector in particular. Regarding metals, steel packaging is also expected to close 2024 up 1.4%, driven by the positive trend in the packaged food sector (i.e. canned products of both vegetable and animal origin).

Wood packaging was up 5% compared to 2023, with pallets alone accounting for 76% of the sector and rising by 4%.

Glass, on the other hand, is expected to confirm the negative trend recorded in 2023. Also for 2024, the performance of the most widely used sectors will affect not only production, with exports closing the year with a drop of 7%, compared to a 3% rise in imports. The negative trend in the alcoholic beverage sector, with its high use of glass for packaging, inevitably affected the trend.

The overall turnover of the packaging sector is expected to remain substantially stable in 2024: the preliminary figures show a 0.2% increase to just over €35.8 billion.
The definitive calculations for the 2024 final balance are being prepared and will be confirmed in the coming months with the release of Packaging in Figures.