Tariffs and packaging machines: what will happen in the next three years?

Mecs Study Centre forecast regarding exports to the USA. Spotlight on Latin America: good margins for growth.

There is a before and an after, a kind of watershed from which even the world of packaging machinery cannot claim to be immune. This is the fault, or the merit – that’s a matter of opinion – of the new economic and trade policy approach adopted by US President Donald Trump. Tariffs are continuing to cause panic, stress and chaos on international markets. However, distinctions need to be made, and above all, we need to keep ahead of the game in such a changeable, evolving situation.

In collaboration with Mecs, the UCIMA study centre, ItaliaImballaggio is continuing with its exclusive interpretation of the phenomena affecting the packaging world.

The focus of this second part is on the United States, with a forecast analysis divided by machine types and customer sectors – embracing the period 2024/2028 – and a digression that takes a look at the Mercosur area in the American continent (comprising Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay and Paraguay). The figures, as we shall see, again confirm the impressive resilience of the sector: packaging machinery continues to offer opportunities for growth, albeit at a slower pace.

The USA: a decisive market, despite tariffs

The USA remains an attractive market, offering prospects for growth. The American packaging market reached a total value of €11.9 billion in 2023, with coverage by local manufacturers exceeding 60%.

Imports (40%) are divided between new machines (73.4%) and spare parts (26.6%). Among the top countries exporting to the United States in 2023, Germany ranks first, with 23.7% of the import share, followed by Italy (22%). Other notable “suppliers” include Canada (13.5%), Switzerland (5.9%) and China (5.9%).

If we examine the market by machine type, it becomes glaringly obvious that the most valuable categories are automatic FFS (Form Fill Seal) packaging machines, with a value of €2,104.4 million, followed by Filling Machines (€2,078.2 million). Other machine types with a sizeable market share are Cartoning Machines (1,413.5 million) and Palletisers (1,303 million).

Finally, with regard to customer sectors, Food tops the list, with a value of €4,285.6 million, followed by Beverage, with €2,729.3. Pharmaceuticals, with a value of €1,397.7 million, takes the third spot on the podium.

Prior to the tariff announcement, projections indicated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +4.8% until 2028, with the market set to reach €15 billion. According to these initial projections, the sectors showing expected growth rates above the average for the total market were Chemicals (CAGR +5.2%) and Food (+4.9 %). Among machine families, those with the best CAGR prospects were Manipulators (CAGR +5.2%), Cartoning Machines (+5%), Labelling Machines (+5%), Palletisers (+5%) and Closing Machines (+5%).

Downstream of the Trumpian “new deal”, however, with the onset of the first trade tensions, Mecs has revised its forecasting model, predicting a slowdown in US growth to a total market value of €14.5 billion (CAGR +4.1%).

To sum up, the outlook is not too gloomy. Although forecasts for expansion in the next few years have been scaled back, it is highly likely that the U.S. market will continue to offer significant opportunities for Italian packaging. Italy has been able to carve out a leading role for itself in the premium packaging machinery sector, and with or without tariffs, high-potential niche opportunities remain.

Mercosur: dynamism and new opportunities

Mercosur is a smaller market than the US, worth a total of €2.9 billion in 2023. The market in the region is driven mainly by Brazil (€650 million), Colombia and Argentina (both around €200 million).

In 2023, Italy was the main trading partner in this area, with a 27.8% share of total imports, followed by Germany (20%), the United States (16.4%), China (9.4%) and Spain (6.2%). For the period 2024-2028, Italian exports to Mercosur are expected to grow, with a 2.7% rise in CAGR.

In terms of machine types, Filling Machines led the market in 2023, with a turnover of €606.2 million, followed by FFS machines (€584.5 million). If we look at customer sectors, Food accounted for the largest share of the regional market (€984.9 million), followed by Beverage (€795.3 million) and Pharmaceuticals (€382.8 million).

According to Mecs' prospective analysis, Mercosur will grow between now and 2028, with a CAGR of 3.7%, increasing to around €3.4 billion in value. The best results are expected from Peru, with a 5.5% increase in CAGR. The highest rates are expected in the Pharmaceutical sector (CAGR +4.1%), while among technologies, FFS and Filling Machines will drive growth in primary packaging, with €710 and €707 million respectively.