Packaging industry report
Four-monthly observatory report - updated October 2025. Analysis of trends in the main areas of the manufacturing industry and the resulting developments in the packaging sector, by the Italian Institute of Packaging.
Barbara Iascone
In 2025, Italian manufacturing is experiencing a phase of cautious recovery following two challenging years. The first months of the year have shown signs of improvement compared with 2024: industrial production has returned to modest growth, and the sector’s overall turnover has exceeded €1,140 billion, marking an increase of approximately 1.8% at current prices.
The Food & Beverage segment demonstrates resilience and adaptability, showing clear signs of recovery driven by domestic demand as well as a strong international interest in Made in Italy products. The sector is expected to reach a growth rate of +2.1% in 2025.
Rebounding exports are the main driving force behind this recovery. Early data show that exports are indeed leading the way, with growth of +6% in the first seven months of the year, and the United States emerging as one of the key destination markets. As for domestic consumption, trends reveal, on the one hand, out-of-home consumption is slowing down, while on the other, large-scale retail distribution is showing positive momentum. Household spending in this segment has increase by 3.8%.
The Beverage sector has been particularly affected by the contraction in out-of-home consumption. However, a slight upturn has been recorded in large-scale distribution, especially for soft drinks, which saw a +2.8% growth in the first half of the year. Overall, the sector is expected to maintain a stable performance, offsetting the negative trends of the early months with a mild recovery over the summer.
The Pharmaceutical sector is performing strongly, showing a +4.7% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by online sales and exports.
The Cosmetics sector maintains its positive trajectory, confirming an expected +5.1% growth for 2025. Foreign trade remains the key growth driver, accounting for 49% of total Italian production and is projected to close2025 with a +7% increase. Production destined for the domestic market is likewise expected to perform well, reaching +3.3% by the end of 2025.
The packaging sector
The 2024 final data (Packaging in figures, 2025 edition) show that the packaging industry played a significant role in the national economy, accounting for 3.3% of the manufacturing industry’s total turnover and 1.7% of GDP. Total production, including municipal solid waste (MSW) bags, reached 17,258,000 tonnes, marking a +1.1% year-on-year increase. However, this rise in volumes was not matched by an increase in value: turnover amounted to €37,961 million, down by -1.2% compared to 2023.
This mismatch between growing production and declining revenues reflects a typical price-compression scenario. The main reasons lie, on the one hand, in the drop in raw material prices, which led to lower selling prices, and on the other, in the strong competitive pressure characterising the market. Taking advantage of lower upstream costs, customers demanded price reductions, forcing manufacturers to absorb part of the margin contraction while keeping production levels high.
As for foreign trade, the balance remains negative: imports exceeded exports by 171,100 tonnes, with imports increasing by roughly 46,000 tonnes compared to 2023 (+37%). Imports reached 2,891,000 tonnes (+3.4%), while exports totalled 2,720,000 tonnes (+1.8%). This worsening trend highlights Italy’s growing dependence on foreign markets and the difficulty by the Italian packaging industry in regaining international competitiveness, despite a solid domestic demand.
The era in which exports comfortably outpaced imports now appears to have come to an end. Multinational packaging groups have gradually relocated production to regions with more competitive cost structures – a trend that has been under way for several years.
This shift has led to a steady rise in imports, to the detriment of domestic production and, above all, of the industry’s capacity to expand exports. Since 2007, imports have recorded an average annual growth rate of +4.7%, whereas exports have remained essentially flat, with a modest average annual increase of just +0.2%.
In summary, 2024 was marked by rising production volumes but declining values for the Italian packaging industry – a reflection of falling prices and sustained margin pressure. The key challenge ahead remains balancing competitiveness with economic sustainability, in an increasingly globalised market that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in raw material costs.
Future outlook
Preliminary analyses for 2025 confirm the positive trend already observed in 2024, with estimated growth of around +1% compared to the previous year. Turnover is also forecast to show signs of recovery, with a positive trend of approximately +1.3%. Looking at the first half of 2025, foreign trade is projected to close with exports up by +2.9% and imports up by +2%. The trade balance remains negative but is expected to improve, narrowing by around 17% compared to 2024.
The outlook for the following period appears equally encouraging, albeit with a moderate pace of expansion: between 2024 and 2028, the sector is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2%. These figures outline a scenario of consolidation for the industry, which seems to be entering a phase of steady and sustainable medium-term development.
The Italian economy under the microscope
In the first months of 2025, the Italian economy has shown moderate yet steady growth – evidence of a recovery that, though not spectacular, is gradually consolidating after two challenging years. According to data released by Istat, Italy’s national statistics agency, GDP rose by +0.3% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, and by +0.7% year-on-year. Although modest, this pace has been enough to keep growth in positive territory within a European context still marked by uncertainty, weak external demand and persistently restrictive monetary policies.
The main driver of this performance was domestic demand. Household consumption, though constrained by purchasing power still in the process of recovering, showed resilience, while gross fixed investments continued to increase – partly supported by NRRP incentives (Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan) and by prospects of technological and infrastructural modernisation. By contrast, exports showed a more uneven trend, affected by the slowdown in several European and Asian markets.
On the price front, inflation continued its downward trajectory, returning to levels close to 2%. In May 2025, the consumer price index stood at around 1.7% year-on-year, marking a sharp decline compared to the peaks recorded in the previous two years.
The labour market has provided further grounds for cautious optimism. The unemployment rate fell to around 5.9% - the lowest level in recent years - driven by higher overall employment and the gradual absorption of the workforce, particularly among adults.
Overall, the first half of 2025 portrays a country in a phase of “prudent stability”: the economy is growing slowly yet is not stagnating; prices are normalising; employment is holding firm. However, significant challenges remain: boosting productivity, sustaining real wages, promoting youth employment, and managing the high public debt in a sustainable way.
Forecasts for the remainder of the year, issued by various research institutes, point to overall GDP growth between 0.5% and 0.6%, with average inflation around 2%. These figures may not be dazzling, yet they outline a scenario of gradual normalisation after years of pronounced turbulence. In a still fragile global context, continuity – rather than speed – currently stands as the main strength of the Italian economy.
