India: a growing market calling for technology

Local production covers the low-end segment of packaging machinery. Demand for advanced solutions is largely directed towards European partners. As for exports, the data show Italy on a growth path and Germany more volatile

by Luca Baraldi and Generoso Verrusio

After our most recent in-depth analysis focusing on China, examined in terms of its competitive relationship with Italy and Germany, the new chapter in our collaboration with Mecs takes us to India – a country that represents not so much a direct competitor to the Italian packaging machinery industry as a rapidly expanding destination market.

The difference is substantial: while Beijing has, over the years, built up a production capacity capable of competing in the low-to-mid segments, New Delhi is at a stage of industrial development that calls for technology, automation and reliability – factors that place Italy in a privileged position.

This interpretation is reinforced by the macroeconomic context. According to the International Monetary Fund, India continues to be the most dynamic engine of the global economy, with growth forecast at 6.5% in both 2026 and 2027. China, by contrast, is slowing down: after years of rapid expansion, growth is expected to fall to 4.4% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, constrained by international trade tensions, in particular the effects of the war in Iran.

Italy and Germany: two similar trajectories
For its part, India does not take market share away from Italy, but it certainly absorbs technology. The Indian packaging machinery market is currently worth €2.309 billion and is expected to reach €2.547 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 2% over the 2025–2029 period. The structure of the market is revealing: around 66% of demand is met by local production, while the remaining 34% comes from abroad. Within this share, Italy accounts for around 8% of imports, with the remainder split between Germany and other countries. This balance shows how India is building its own manufacturing base, while at the same time recognising the value of European technology in the more advanced segments.

Istat data – covering around 80% of the export figures collected by the Mecs Research Centre – also allow us to assess Italy’s role in this scenario with precision. Italian exports of packaging machinery grow from €5.09 billion in 2020 to €6.52 billion in 2024, with a forecast of €6.61 billion in 2025 and a CAGR of 5.4% over the 2020-2025 period. Within this framework, India emerges as one of the most dynamic markets: Italian exports to the country rise from €88.8 million in 2020 to €168.1 million in 2023, reach €179.9 million in 2024 and stand at €155.8 million in 2025.

Germany follows a similar but more irregular trajectory. German exports to India increase from €83.3 million in 2020 to €150.6 million in 2022, peak at €238.6 million in 2023 and fall to €176.9 million in 2024. Volatility is greater than in Italy’s case, but the overall picture confirms that the two European countries consistently occupy the high end of the Indian market.

Indian exports are growing, but remain far from European standards
India exports packaging machinery worth €157.9 million in 2020, €220.4 million in 2023 and €256.8 million in 2024, with a forecast of €277.5 million in 2025 and a CAGR of 11.9%. This is significant growth, but from levels still too limited to pose a competitive “threat” to Italy and Germany. The average quality of Indian machinery remains below European standards, and their presence is concentrated in emerging markets where price is the primary decision driver.

Looking ahead, therefore, India is not a competitor but rather an accelerator – or better, an incubator – of European technology. It is a market growing faster than the global average and one that will continue to turn to European suppliers for the most advanced segments.